RATINGS CHANGE: Decision Desk HQ Moves FL-13 Towards Leela Gray, Campaign Momentum Undeniable

Fifth race-rating shift in Gray's direction further solidifies FL-13 as a competitive battleground in the final stretch

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
October 22, 2026
CONTACT: press@leelagray.com

St. Petersburg, FL — Today, nationally recognized election forecaster Decision Desk HQ shifted Florida's 13th Congressional District from Likely to Lean Republican, marking the fifth race-rating change in favor of retired Army Brigadier General Leela Gray in her campaign to unseat incumbent Anna Paulina Luna.

The latest shift adds to a clear and undeniable pattern of momentum behind Gray's campaign. Decision Desk HQ now joins Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Fox News in moving FL-13 towards Gray, while the Tampa Bay Times also assessed Luna as vulnerable and recommended Gray. 

With less than two weeks until Election Day, yet another major national forecaster is recognizing what has become increasingly clear: Leela Gray has the momentum to flip FL-13.

Gray released the following statement:

“Our campaign’s momentum is undeniable. People in FL-13 are done with self-serving politicians who drive up costs and support foreign wars,” Gray said. “National watchers are simply seeing what local voices have been saying for months: Pinellas and Pasco counties are ready to send a proven leader, who puts service over self, to Washington to tackle the cost of living crisis and root out rampant corruption.”

The latest adjustment comes as Gray continues to build support around her service-over-self leadership and commitment to tackling the cost-of-living crisis, rooting out corruption in Washington, and putting the working families of Pinellas and Pasco counties first.

State of the Race

• Decision Desk HQ becomes the latest major national forecaster to shift FL-13 from Likely to Lean Republican.

• Inside Elections, Cook Political Report, and Fox News have all shifted the race to Lean Republican in recent weeks.

• The Tampa Bay Times similarly moved Luna's seat from "Potentially Vulnerable" to "Vulnerable."

• The latest House Majority PAC-sponsored poll, conducted by Public Policy Polling October 14–15, shows Gray at 47% to Luna's 46% in a district Donald Trump won by approximately 13 points in 2024.

• An earlier House Majority PAC poll showed Gray leading Luna 51% to 46%, winning unaffiliated voters by 17 points, earning support from nearly one in four Republicans, and drawing support from 9% of 2024 Trump voters.

• Gray's campaign raised more than $1.4 million in the third quarter, including $900,000 in September, demonstrating the growing financial support behind her campaign.

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